From the Desk of Our CIO
From Missiles to Metals: Market Volatility in the Face of Geopolitical Tensions
The initial shock from the retaliatory attack on Israel by Iran over the weekend had been well absorbed by markets when trading opened this morning. But as the day progressed, the prospects of rising geopolitical tensions weighed on risk appetite. The communication from Iran was that the barrage of ballistic, drone, and cruise missiles was […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Economic Crossroads: Inflation, Oil Markets, and Central Bank Dilemmas
Financial markets hit another speed bump this morning, with U.S. inflation coming in warmer than anticipated. Both headline and core consumer prices surprised to the upside, with headline CPI increasing by +3.5% relative to one year ago, missing expectations of a +3.4% increase and up from February’s +3.2% reading. Housing and gasoline costs contributed more […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Trump, Trade, and the Greenback
Friday’s blockbuster U.S. employment report may have upended the bond market’s optimism that monetary policy easing will begin in June as the labour market in the U.S. refuses to soften. The U.S. labour market added 303k new jobs in March, close to 100k more than had been expected. The unemployment rate fell to +3.8% from […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Insights from The Francis Sabourin Hour Podcast
Check out this great podcast from The Francis Sabourin Hour Podcast! “We seem to be in the first few years of the latest commodities super-cycle.” Join me as I step into the world of commodities with Francis Sabourin on his podcast, The Francis Sabourin Hour (March 14th, 2024 edition). Tune in as we unravel where we […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Fed Takes International Day of Happiness to Heart
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded their March meeting today and, as expected, left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Given that this was widely anticipated, market participants looked through the main interest rate announcement and took their cues from Jerome Powell’s press conference and updates to the FOMC “dot plot,” which on balance were […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Cocoa Prices Go Parabolic, Bunny Budgets Crumble
The historic rise in cocoa prices is showing little signs of slowing down, with prices having doubled in less than three months. While chocolate manufacturers typically buy beans months ahead of time, the surge in prices will likely soon flow through to consumers, as inventories are being whittled down due to the mad scramble for […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Oil Outlook 2024: Trends, Tensions, and Trajectories
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and an ongoing war in Ukraine have yet to jolt oil price materially higher, with crude benchmarks continuing to trade below the recent highs seen at the end of Q3 2023. Oil prices did find some support to start 2024 as extreme weather conditions in North America shuttered […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
China’s Siren Song
I wrote a note just over two years ago about the Chinese investment landscape, and how the sweeping regulatory reforms that were enacted in early 2022 would likely act as a drag on equity multiples and investor sentiment. Fast forward to today and investor sentiment has improved little. Since the end of 2021, the Hong Kong […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Brace for a Bumpy Ride
Please fasten your seatbelts and return your tray table to its full upright and locked position. Hopefully, the economy isn’t flying on a Boeing 737 MAX… Financial markets hit some turbulence yesterday, with both equities and bonds seeing broad based selling pressure after a warmer than anticipated U.S. inflation print. The headline reading for January […]