From the Desk of Our CIO
Cuckoo for Cocoa Futures
The rollercoaster ride for cocoa prices has continued throughout May with front-month futures prices down roughly -40% from the top in late April. For commodity managers that use volatility to adjust their position sizing, these managers would have sidestepped a good chunk of the negative price action. The increasing volatility of cocoa would have signaled […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Scott Smith Featured in Canadian Family Offices Article
Recently, CIO Scott Smith was featured in an article by Canadian Family Offices to emphasize the importance of commodities in a balanced portfolio for ultra-high-net-worth investors during the current commodities supercycle. Smith asserts that this supercycle began post-COVID-19 in 2020, fueled by significant fiscal stimulus. This cycle, expected to last 10 to 15 years, is characterized by […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Sparks Fly: Electrification & Data Centers Fuel Copper’s Rally
Copper continued its upward climb on Monday, with front-month futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hitting a new record of $11k/ton before pulling back prior to the close. Copper prices have risen +30% year to date and the industrial metal is one of the top performing commodities in 2024. As such, copper has been […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Doubling Down on China: Tariffs & the Reindustrialization of the West
One of the key themes on which we’ve been focusing this year in the run-up to the U.S. election has been foreign trade policy and how this could impact everything from growth and inflation, to the U.S. dollar. While both political parties in the U.S. can’t seem to agree on much, one thing they have […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Is Winter Coming for the U.S. Economy?
It’s probably best to start this note right up front and say the stock market is not the real economy, lest we get into a debate about whether it’s rational for bad news to be good for stocks and vice versa. On Friday, employment numbers for the U.S. economy were released, and there was a […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
A Great Day for Bird Lovers: Powell Appeases the Doves & the Hawks
Today’s interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (Fed) was highly anticipated, given how the economic picture has evolved over the last month. Economic growth has remained steady, if a bit uneven, while inflation has been stickier than the markets and the Fed would like to see. Over the last month, market participants have dialed […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Commodity Chaos: Cocoa Collapses & Copper Surges
Those with a sweet tooth breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as cocoa prices retreated from their nosebleed levels in the biggest one-day drop in 65 years. The violent collapse in prices sent the actively traded front month futures contract down -15.7%, effectively erasing most of the gains made in April. The meltdown was felt […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Is It Time to Start Buying Duration?
At Viewpoint, we’ve been in the camp that the current macroeconomic backdrop isn’t conducive to the Federal Reserve (Fed) being able to skirt a recession and reduce interest rates back to a long-term equilibrium, all while inflation remains under control. This is what would otherwise be known as a “soft landing.” Back in March, I […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
The Buzz on Beans: From Cocoa to Coffee
The astonishing run for cocoa prices has yet to lose steam, with the commodity rising by +21.6% over the month of April, bringing the year-to-date gain to +223.3% as of April 19th. I wrote a note a little over a month ago about the supply issues in the cocoa industry that have caused the parabolic move […]