From the Desk of Our CIO
Gold Rush 2024: Geopolitical Shifts Provoke Central Bank Buying
While it hasn’t had the splashiest of headlines like cocoa, coffee, or copper this year, gold has been putting together a solid rally over the course of 2024, with front-month roll-adjusted futures up +19.1% to July 17th. One of the most interesting things about the rally has been that it’s happening at the same […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Frexit Fears Spark Investor Anxiety
Global equity markets have powered higher for the first half of 2024, gaining ground on strong margin growth and the prospect of declining inflationary pressures. The U.S. equity market has been a stand-out, increasing by +19.8% in CAD terms, brushing off geopolitical concerns and any uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. election in November. While election […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Dairy Dilemma: Bird Flu Outbreak Sends Milk Markets into a Churn
If you thought the current macroeconomic landscape wasn’t interesting enough (e.g., ongoing geopolitical conflicts, election uncertainty, etc.), we can now add an influenza outbreak to the 2024 bingo card. In late March of this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) detected an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5N1), known informally as […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Doubling Down: CPI Crowds Fed Decision Day
Inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decisions are arguably two of the biggest announcements on the recurring economic calendar, with employment data rounding out the “big three.” The monthly inflation report for the U.S. has only coincided with the Fed’s interest rate announcement 13 times since 2008, so it’s a rare occurrence […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze: Extreme Weather Underpins the OJ Rally
In what continues to be a challenging growing season for certain agricultural commodities, orange juice prices have resumed their upward trend as a combination of disease and extreme weather continue to wreak havoc on orange crops in Brazil. Frozen orange juice prices are up +32% so far this year, as excessive heat during the key […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Two to Tango: Choreographing the BoC & Fed’s Monetary Policy Moves
About a month ago, I wrote a brief note pondering if it was time to start getting back to benchmark duration weights in U.S. fixed income portfolios. The rationale for why it is too early to be extending duration is due to U.S. monetary policy being in a balancing feedback loop, which is the basis […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Cuckoo for Cocoa Futures
The rollercoaster ride for cocoa prices has continued throughout May with front-month futures prices down roughly -40% from the top in late April. For commodity managers that use volatility to adjust their position sizing, these managers would have sidestepped a good chunk of the negative price action. The increasing volatility of cocoa would have signaled […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Scott Smith Featured in Canadian Family Offices Article
Recently, CIO Scott Smith was featured in an article by Canadian Family Offices to emphasize the importance of commodities in a balanced portfolio for ultra-high-net-worth investors during the current commodities supercycle. Smith asserts that this supercycle began post-COVID-19 in 2020, fueled by significant fiscal stimulus. This cycle, expected to last 10 to 15 years, is characterized by […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Sparks Fly: Electrification & Data Centers Fuel Copper’s Rally
Copper continued its upward climb on Monday, with front-month futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hitting a new record of $11k/ton before pulling back prior to the close. Copper prices have risen +30% year to date and the industrial metal is one of the top performing commodities in 2024. As such, copper has been […]