Insights · Commentary
Market commentary and perspective from Chief Investment Officer Scott Smith.
Washington is fighting to keep long-term yields under control, but war, deficits and the AI boom are pushing back. As the Treasury intervenes and the Fed faces a policy bind, pressure may shift elsewhere, turning the U.S. dollar into the market’s natural release valve.
CIO Scott Smith explores how geopolitical tensions, fertilizer risks, and a potential super El Niño could reshape agricultural commodities, and why broad, geographically diversified exposure may matter as supply shocks become more frequent.
Executive Summary Almost a month into the Iran conflict, de-escalations are underway, but none constitute a credible off-ramp. Iran’s leverage is real and Tehran may not yet believe it has extracted sufficient deterrent value to stand down. A ground force operation targeting Kharg Island, which hand
Executive Summary As we enter the second week of the conflict, there has been no meaningful de-escalation, with attacks reported on Iranian oil infrastructure and desalination facilities in both Iran and Bahrain. Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, reinforcing regime continuit
Executive Summary My starting point in early 2026 was dovish on major U.S. escalation with Iran. Midterms amplify the political cost of higher energy prices Iran is not a “quick regime calibration candidate” case like Venezuela. Post-SOTU, escalation risk rose – fewer visible affordability reforms i
In our January outlook, we argued the era of peak tariffs was behind us, both from the perspective of U.S. consumer affordability and policy constraints on the U.S. administration from the courts. The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down tariffs implemented under the IEEPA statute is a prime exam
Executive Summary Cocoa’s 2023–2026 price cycle was one of the most extreme agricultural commodity moves in recent decades, compressing years of commodity dynamics into 24 months. Structural supply deficits, critically low inventories, and inelastic demand led to a tripling in price followed by a sh
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve landed with more force in financial markets than many anticipated. Expectations heading into the decision were that any incoming Chair would lean more dovish than Jerome Powell, reflecting the Trump administration’s sustained pre
As we enter 2026, financial markets are being shaped less by any single economic narrative and more by the interaction between monetary policy, fiscal policy, geopolitics, and late-cycle dynamics. U.S. growth remains constructive even as employment softens, and productivity gains continue to support
Financial markets love clean narratives, but geopolitical developments rarely deliver them. The U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend was a headline shock, yet the most likely commodity-market outcome is near-term ambiguity with messier second-order implications. The b
For commodity markets, 2025 will go down as the year of the metals. Precious and industrial metals both delivered standout returns. Silver, platinum, and palladium grabbed headlines late in the year as speculative positioning drove sharp volatility. Copper, meanwhile, quietly put up its best annual
Equities paused last week as investors questioned whether the AI capital-expenditure (capex) boom is sustainable and whether future earnings justify the vast build-out. Emerging vendor-financing loops in mega-cap tech—think Nvidia investing in OpenAI, OpenAI inking a cloud deal with Oracle, and Orac