From the Desk of Our CIO
Market Mirage or Canary in the Coal Mine? Unpacking the August Volatility
We’re just over halfway through the month of August and it feels like the market volatility from early in the month is firmly in the rear-view mirror. Global equity markets are now in the green for August, just shy of all-time highs. Although much of the damage in financial markets seems to have been fixed, […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Coal’s Surprising Resilience: The Global Energy Paradox
The ongoing progress and focus on the energy transition in the Western world has created the perception that coal is an obsolete commodity, relegated to the history books as a dirty fossil fuel no longer required for power generation or industrial use. In June, Alberta powered down its last fully dedicated coal plant, with […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
U.S. Election Heats Up: What a Trump Presidency Could Mean for Financial Markets
In what has been dubbed as “the year of the elections” with approximately half of the world heading to the voting box in 2024, focus is now shifting to what is arguably the main event for the election calendar. The U.S. presidential election had been a relatively sleepy affair for the first half of […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Gold Rush 2024: Geopolitical Shifts Provoke Central Bank Buying
While it hasn’t had the splashiest of headlines like cocoa, coffee, or copper this year, gold has been putting together a solid rally over the course of 2024, with front-month roll-adjusted futures up +19.1% to July 17th. One of the most interesting things about the rally has been that it’s happening at the same […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Frexit Fears Spark Investor Anxiety
Global equity markets have powered higher for the first half of 2024, gaining ground on strong margin growth and the prospect of declining inflationary pressures. The U.S. equity market has been a stand-out, increasing by +19.8% in CAD terms, brushing off geopolitical concerns and any uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. election in November. While election […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Dairy Dilemma: Bird Flu Outbreak Sends Milk Markets into a Churn
If you thought the current macroeconomic landscape wasn’t interesting enough (e.g., ongoing geopolitical conflicts, election uncertainty, etc.), we can now add an influenza outbreak to the 2024 bingo card. In late March of this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) detected an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5N1), known informally as […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Doubling Down: CPI Crowds Fed Decision Day
Inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decisions are arguably two of the biggest announcements on the recurring economic calendar, with employment data rounding out the “big three.” The monthly inflation report for the U.S. has only coincided with the Fed’s interest rate announcement 13 times since 2008, so it’s a rare occurrence […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze: Extreme Weather Underpins the OJ Rally
In what continues to be a challenging growing season for certain agricultural commodities, orange juice prices have resumed their upward trend as a combination of disease and extreme weather continue to wreak havoc on orange crops in Brazil. Frozen orange juice prices are up +32% so far this year, as excessive heat during the key […]
From the Desk of Our CIO
Two to Tango: Choreographing the BoC & Fed’s Monetary Policy Moves
About a month ago, I wrote a brief note pondering if it was time to start getting back to benchmark duration weights in U.S. fixed income portfolios. The rationale for why it is too early to be extending duration is due to U.S. monetary policy being in a balancing feedback loop, which is the basis […]