Insights · Commentary
Market commentary and perspective from Chief Investment Officer Scott Smith.
If you thought the current macroeconomic landscape wasn’t interesting enough (e.g., ongoing geopolitical conflicts, election uncertainty, etc.), we can now add an influenza outbreak to the 2024 bingo card. In late March of this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) detected an out
Inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decisions are arguably two of the biggest announcements on the recurring economic calendar, with employment data rounding out the “big three.” The monthly inflation report for the U.S. has only coincided with the Fed’s interest rate announ
In what continues to be a challenging growing season for certain agricultural commodities, orange juice prices have resumed their upward trend as a combination of disease and extreme weather continue to wreak havoc on orange crops in Brazil. Frozen orange juice prices are up +32% so far this year, a
About a month ago, I wrote a brief note pondering if it was time to start getting back to benchmark duration weights in U.S. fixed income portfolios. The rationale for why it is too early to be extending duration is due to U.S. monetary policy being in a balancing feedback loop, which is the basis [
The rollercoaster ride for cocoa prices has continued throughout May with front-month futures prices down roughly -40% from the top in late April. For commodity managers that use volatility to adjust their position sizing, these managers would have sidestepped a good chunk of the negative price acti
Recently, CIO Scott Smith was featured in an article by Canadian Family Offices to emphasize the importance of commodities in a balanced portfolio for ultra-high-net-worth investors during the current commodities supercycle. Smith asserts that this supercycle began post-COVID-19 in 2020, fueled by s
Copper continued its upward climb on Monday, with front-month futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hitting a new record of $11k/ton before pulling back prior to the close. Copper prices have risen +30% year to date and the industrial metal is one of the top performing commodities in 2024. As s
One of the key themes on which we’ve been focusing this year in the run-up to the U.S. election has been foreign trade policy and how this could impact everything from growth and inflation, to the U.S. dollar. While both political parties in the U.S. can’t seem to agree on much, one thing they have
It’s probably best to start this note right up front and say the stock market is not the real economy, lest we get into a debate about whether it’s rational for bad news to be good for stocks and vice versa. On Friday, employment numbers for the U.S. economy were released, and there was a […]
Today’s interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (Fed) was highly anticipated, given how the economic picture has evolved over the last month. Economic growth has remained steady, if a bit uneven, while inflation has been stickier than the markets and the Fed would like to see. Over the l
Those with a sweet tooth breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as cocoa prices retreated from their nosebleed levels in the biggest one-day drop in 65 years. The violent collapse in prices sent the actively traded front month futures contract down -15.7%, effectively erasing most of the gains made in
At Viewpoint, we’ve been in the camp that the current macroeconomic backdrop isn’t conducive to the Federal Reserve (Fed) being able to skirt a recession and reduce interest rates back to a long-term equilibrium, all while inflation remains under control. This is what would otherwise be known as a “