Insights · Commentary
Market commentary and perspective from Chief Investment Officer Scott Smith.
Those with a sweet tooth breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as cocoa prices retreated from their nosebleed levels in the biggest one-day drop in 65 years. The violent collapse in prices sent the actively traded front month futures contract down -15.7%, effectively erasing most of the gains made in
At Viewpoint, we’ve been in the camp that the current macroeconomic backdrop isn’t conducive to the Federal Reserve (Fed) being able to skirt a recession and reduce interest rates back to a long-term equilibrium, all while inflation remains under control. This is what would otherwise be known as a “
The astonishing run for cocoa prices has yet to lose steam, with the commodity rising by +21.6% over the month of April, bringing the year-to-date gain to +223.3% as of April 19th. I wrote a note a little over a month ago about the supply issues in the cocoa industry that have caused the parabolic m
The initial shock from the retaliatory attack on Israel by Iran over the weekend had been well absorbed by markets when trading opened this morning. But as the day progressed, the prospects of rising geopolitical tensions weighed on risk appetite. The communication from Iran was that the barrage of
Financial markets hit another speed bump this morning, with U.S. inflation coming in warmer than anticipated. Both headline and core consumer prices surprised to the upside, with headline CPI increasing by +3.5% relative to one year ago, missing expectations of a +3.4% increase and up from February’
Friday’s blockbuster U.S. employment report may have upended the bond market’s optimism that monetary policy easing will begin in June as the labour market in the U.S. refuses to soften. The U.S. labour market added 303k new jobs in March, close to 100k more than had been expected. The unemployment
Check out this great podcast from The Francis Sabourin Hour Podcast! “We seem to be in the first few years of the latest commodities super-cycle.” Join me as I step into the world of commodities with Francis Sabourin on his podcast, The Francis Sabourin Hour (March 14th, 2024 edition). Tune in as we
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded their March meeting today and, as expected, left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Given that this was widely anticipated, market participants looked through the main interest rate announcement and took their cues from Jerome Powell’s press c
The historic rise in cocoa prices is showing little signs of slowing down, with prices having doubled in less than three months. While chocolate manufacturers typically buy beans months ahead of time, the surge in prices will likely soon flow through to consumers, as inventories are being whittled d
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and an ongoing war in Ukraine have yet to jolt oil price materially higher, with crude benchmarks continuing to trade below the recent highs seen at the end of Q3 2023. Oil prices did find some support to start 2024 as extreme weather conditions in
I wrote a note just over two years ago about the Chinese investment landscape, and how the sweeping regulatory reforms that were enacted in early 2022 would likely act as a drag on equity multiples and investor sentiment. Fast forward to today and investor sentiment has improved little. Since the en
Please fasten your seatbelts and return your tray table to its full upright and locked position. Hopefully, the economy isn’t flying on a Boeing 737 MAX… Financial markets hit some turbulence yesterday, with both equities and bonds seeing broad based selling pressure after a warmer than anticipated