Insights · Commentary
Market commentary and perspective from Chief Investment Officer Scott Smith.
As financial markets digest the implications of another presidential term for Donald Trump—this time with a more definite mandate as the Republicans control both legislative branches of Congress—one of the outcomes has been a rising U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar has gained +3% against a basket of glo
In a historic week, the United States elected Donald Trump as their 47th president, only the second president to be elected for non-consecutive terms after Grover Cleveland in 1893. While not a landslide in relation to Obama’s first term where he won 365 seats and almost 54% of the popular vote, the
Investors are bracing for an eventful week in financial markets, with the U.S. election on Tuesday followed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate policy meeting that culminates on Thursday. As to be expected, volatility markets are placing a premium on near-term crash protection, though we’ve a
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a note explaining that even though the Federal Reserve had recently reduced the overnight interest rate by 50 basis points, long-term bond yields have since moved higher, which could be counterintuitive for casual market watchers. Stronger-than-expected economic data w
It’s been close to a month since the Federal Reserve (Fed) embarked on what is likely to be the start of a rate cutting cycle, lowering the overnight rate by 50bps. While attention was focused on the “jumbo” nature of the interest rate reduction, given the Fed generally adjusts interest rates in 25b
A few weeks ago, I wrote a note on the state of the industrial metals market and how sentiment had been weighed down by sluggish demand out of China. Not only was a slumping property market stoking concerns that Beijing would miss their official growth target, but the upcoming U.S. election could ha
A key pillar of both U.S. political parties’ economic platforms is delivering a plan aimed at reducing consumer prices, which has been a major issue on both a local and global scale. In a recent note, we showed that the pace of rising food prices has been slowing, yet individuals are still unhappy w
Over the last three months, broad commodity markets have experienced a notable pullback. Outside of the softs sector, which encompasses commodities like cocoa, sugar, coffee, and orange juice, there aren’t many commodities that are in the green over the last three months. Industrial metals have expe
A little over a month ago we released a note detailing the pillars of Donald Trump’s economic platform, and if Trump were to win the presidential election in November, how these policies from the campaign trail could influence price action in financial markets. The note was released just after Joe B
We’re just over halfway through the month of August and it feels like the market volatility from early in the month is firmly in the rear-view mirror. Global equity markets are now in the green for August, just shy of all-time highs. Although much of the damage in financial markets seems to have bee
The ongoing progress and focus on the energy transition in the Western world has created the perception that coal is an obsolete commodity, relegated to the history books as a dirty fossil fuel no longer required for power generation or industrial use. In June, Alberta powered down its last fully de
In what has been dubbed as “the year of the elections” with approximately half of the world heading to the voting box in 2024, focus is now shifting to what is arguably the main event for the election calendar. The U.S. presidential election had been a relatively sleepy affair for the first half of