Insights · Markets
In-depth analysis of market events and macro developments from the Viewpoint team.
In 1994, James Carville, a political adviser to President Clinton, remarked, “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Almost
The boiling frog is a somewhat morbid ‘apologue’ [1] that tells of how a frog will sense and react to changes in temperature as opposed to its absolute level. This means that if you were to put a frog into tepid water and slowly raise the temperature, the frog would meet its demise, feeling no urge
When investors are contemplating how best to achieve their financial goals, the discussion generally centres around the required return needed to meet those goals, along with how much risk an investor is willing to bear. Once those two related topics have been decided, attention then turns to portfo
Having experienced the sharpest rate hike cycle ever seen in the United States, it is shocking to many that the impact has been so limited. Figure 1 shows the incremental monthly increase in the Fed Funds rate from the initiation of rate hikes. (Federal Reserve Economic Data, 2023) This chart shows
What is the largest amount of money you would bet on a fair coin flip? I like asking people this question, because the answers I get are often very interesting and very diverse. It gets at the heart of a person’s risk tolerance, as it is a bet with an expected value of 0, given […]
Commodities markets are where raw material producers (farmers, miners, etc.) and consumers (grocery stores, bakers, manufacturing facilities, etc.) come together to trade their respective resources amongst one another. Here, the market reflects a relatively pure example of supply and demand dynamics
Over the past three years, the macroeconomic landscape has been remarkably volatile. A non-exhaustive list of events includes a pandemic, a war in Ukraine, skyrocketing inflation, and a regional banking crisis in the United States. These macroeconomic surprises have translated into heightened volati
Please note, none of the information contained in this blog post should be construed as investment advice. The opinions expressed within the content belong solely to the author and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of Viewpoint or its affiliates. I come from an oil & gas family. After World Wa
As our regular readers might ascertain from prior pieces like FOMC Gymnastics and a Potential Policy Misstep, Walking a Tightrope with the Fed, and Policy Pivots & the Federal Reserve Reaction Function, it has always been important to consider the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) and actions of its Feder
Society is marching towards artificial general intelligence (AGI), whether we like it or not. The latest milestone towards AGI has been the development
Society is marching towards artificial general intelligence (AGI), whether we like it or not. The latest milestone towards AGI has been the development of ‘actually useful’ AI chatbots, ChatGPT (Microsoft) and Bard (Google). While in some ways these chatbots may seem trivial, this development is a m
One of the big questions on investors’ minds over the last few weeks is whether the dramatic rise in interest rates is finally starting to take its toll on the economy. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) set off contagion worries in the banking sector and has increased the risk of an economic