Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Making predictions and forecasting the future are integral parts of everyday life, yet it’s unlikely individuals realize the amount of predictions one makes in a day. The use of heuristics or “rules of thumb” are ingrained in human psychology and help people quickly determine courses of action with limited information at their disposal. Deciding what…

Are There Ever Good Behavioural Biases?

Behavioural biases and the effect of human psychology on rational decision making is a topic often discussed in investment management. Both retail and institutional investors are impacted by their psychological wiring, but most of the time the discussion centers around how investors can mitigate the impact of negative behavioural biases on their investment decision making….

The Joy of Missing Out

The aphorisms YOLO (you only live once) and FOMO (fear of missing out) have become broadly accepted phrases across many generations during the past decade, and are no longer relegated to just the vocabulary of Millennials or Generation Z. Traditionally associated with living in the moment and the pursuit of self-gratification, there has been a…

The Role of Psychology in Investment

The argument could be made that prediction is at the heart of every investment decision. At a very high-level, you are providing capital to a company and predicting that you will earn a reasonable rate of return on your investment; however, this is by no means guaranteed. Morgan Housel from the Collaborative Fund wrote a…