Monte Carlo Simulations: A Journey Down Many Paths

In a previous blog post by Viewpoint Investment Partners, Volatility, A Skewed Reality, Amin Haji, Manager, Research & Analytics, explored the probability of specific wealth targets being achieved over a 20-year period when comparing investments with similar annual returns but differing volatilities. To perform his analysis, he leveraged a simple but powerful tool: Monte Carlo…

Volatility, A Skewed Reality


Volatility drag – or how volatility exacerbates the divergence between arithmetic returns and geometric returns – is something that is often debated by investment managers and investors alike. A common argument is that while higher volatility increases your downside, it can also increase your potential upside and therefore it may be rational to be risk-seeking to some extent. Another argument is that with a long enough time horizon, investors don’t actually need to worry about volatility, because they can tolerate the ups and downs of the market.