Why “Resulting” is Dangerous in Both Poker and Investment Management

During times of crisis, we often read sensationalist reports about tail risk strategies that result in astronomical returns. However, these strategies aren’t meant to be a standalone solution, but rather a small part of a diversified portfolio. Tail risk hedging is a type of insurance and, as with any type of insurance, it’s important to…

Is It Really That Easy?

All too often we encounter a scenario seemingly so straightforward, observe another who makes something appear so natural, or judge a problem appearing to have an obvious solution. As it applies to investment management, we achieve or learn of others realizing superior returns in what feels or appears effortless. However, our perception deceives us, as…

The Cost of High-Frequency Traders and Latency Arbitrage

A new study released by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the U.K. has reignited concerns around the ability of predatory high-frequency traders (HFTs) to profit on equity trades by using a technique called “latency arbitrage.” Latency arbitrage is a practice used by HFTs that utilizes a fragmented market structure and speed to “snipe” stale…

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Making predictions and forecasting the future are integral parts of everyday life, yet it’s unlikely individuals realize the amount of predictions one makes in a day. The use of heuristics or “rules of thumb” are ingrained in human psychology and help people quickly determine courses of action with limited information at their disposal. Deciding what…

Surviving in the Longest Bull Market as a Bear

There is an old saying that “bull markets don’t die of old age, they get murdered by central banks.” This makes a lot of sense, given that central banks control short-term borrowing rates and use that policy tool as a way to influence the economic cycle in an orderly fashion. The Federal Reserve (arguably the…

The Benefits of Preparing for the Unknown

While many investors may define success for their investment portfolio from a return-centric perspective, arguably the more important factor to focus on is risk mitigation. Once you’ve defined a way to quantify the utility function inherent in a risk-centric framework, then return expectations can follow. Otherwise, the strategy is at risk of being abandoned when…

ETFs Aren’t Always the Most Cost-Effective

Over the last few years there has been a lot of media attention on ETFs (exchange traded funds) and how they have precipitated a “fee war” in the asset management industry. Large asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock have been accused of inciting a “race to the bottom” in investment management fees, squeezing margins for…

Who Should Have a Fiduciary Obligation in Investment Management?

The financial services industry in North America has long had an image problem when it comes to financial advice offered to retail clients. Confusion among investors to the role their advisors play as it pertains to product recommendations has not helped alleviate concerns around mistrust and whether these financial professionals ultimately have the best interests…

The Man Who Solved the Market

Until recently, stories about the investment management firm Renaissance Technologies and its flagship Medallion fund were relegated to hedge fund mythology and investor folklore. Unverifiable anecdotes around performance numbers trouncing the S&P 500 left many wondering if the team at Renaissance had managed to “crack” financial markets and whether the rumors were too good to…

What We Can Learn from Poker About Investment Management

Investing and poker have a lot in common. Both involve a balance of known and unknown information, and both involve updating probabilities when new information is presented. One might suggest investing is slightly trickier than poker given that the “rules” of the game can adapt over time, but at a high level both share a…